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Signal Lifecycle, Invalidation & Expiry

Signal States
Lifecycle
Core Concept

Understanding the signal lifecycle is essential for using Trade Flagger effectively. Each signal has a price-position state (pre-entry, in zone, entered, then target progression) and can exit through expiry, cancellation, stop, or completion. This guide walks through the current model end to end.

1. Signal States

States reflect where price sits relative to entry, invalidation, and targets—not a separate “event” pipeline. Use them to see what's actionable (e.g. in the entry zone) vs. still forming (pre-entry), and how far along a trade is after entry.

Pre-entry (no position yet)

1

Pre-Entry

Setup detected; price between stop and entry zone

2

In Entry Zone

Price in the entry zone; awaiting 5m candle close to confirm

3

Entered

A 5m candle closed inside the entry zone (entry latched)

Target progression (after entry)

4

Post-Entry Runup

Price between entry zone and first target (T1)

5

In Target 1

Price within the T1 band

6

Between Targets

Price between T1 upper and T2 lower

7

In Target 2

Price within the T2 band; completion rule can follow

Signals can exit the lifecycle at any stage:

Completed

T2 achieved or completion rule met (win/partial)

Stopped

Invalidation crossed after entry (loss)

Cancelled

Stop before entry, TTL expiry, regime flip, spread spike, or manual cancel — distinct from a post-entry stop

2. Lifecycle Timeline

Here's a real-world example of how a signal progresses through its lifecycle:

Example: EURUSD Trend Pullback

1
09:00 AM
Pre-Entry

Setup detected

EURUSD compression at a key level; signal created, price not yet in the entry zone

2
09:15 AM
In Entry Zone

Price in entry zone

Pullback into the zone; waiting for a 5m candle to close inside the zone to latch entry

3
09:20 AM
Entered

Entry latched

5m candle closes inside the entry zone — entry confirmed, notification sent

4
09:35 AM
In Target 1

First target reached

Price trades into the T1 band; state tracks position vs. targets

5
10:10 AM
In Target 2

Second target reached

Price in the T2 band; completion rule can finalize the trade

6
10:25 AM
Completed

Trade completed

Terminal state: targets / completion rule satisfied — outcome recorded

Key Insight: Pre-Entry → In Entry Zone → Entered often unfolds within minutes to hours, depending on the market. Entry is latched only when a 5-minute candle closes inside the entry zone (not on a wick alone). You'll get notifications on meaningful state changes, including target progression after entry.

3. Invalidation Rules

The app distinguishes pre-entry vs post-entry invalidation. Before entry is latched, a stop breach ends the signal as Cancelled (no position taken). After entry, crossing invalidation is Stopped (loss). Other exits (TTL, regime flip, manual) can end a signal as Cancelled depending on strategy rules.

What Causes Exit / Invalidation

  • Stop before entryInvalidation hit before 5m close in zone → Cancelled
  • Stop after entryInvalidation crossed after latch → Stopped
  • Time / regimeTTL expiry, regime flip, or manual cancel → Cancelled

How to Interpret Invalidation

  • Do not chaseThe setup is dead, move on
  • Learn from itSometimes the market shows its hand early
  • Wait for resetA new setup may form later

Invalidation ≠ Failure

An invalidated signal is not a failed prediction—it's the system working correctly. The setup required specific conditions that were violated. This is risk management in action.

4. Expiry Mechanics

Signals don't live forever. If conditions don't materialize within a reasonable timeframe, the signal expires. This prevents stale setups from cluttering your view.

Time-Based Expiry

Intraday signals typically expire after a few hours if entry is not confirmed. The setup loses relevance as market conditions evolve.

Session-Based Expiry

Some signals expire at the end of the trading session (e.g., market close for stocks). Fresh analysis is needed for the next session.

Expiry vs Invalidation

Expiry

  • • Time ran out
  • • Setup was never tested
  • • Neutral outcome
  • • Market moved sideways or away

Invalidation

  • • Stop hit after entry (Stopped)
  • • Setup premise violated post-latch
  • • Definitive adverse outcome vs. plan
  • • Contrasts with neutral expiry (time ran out)

Pro Tip: If many signals expire without entry being confirmed, conditions may be choppy and setups aren't following through. Consider reducing size or waiting for cleaner structure.

5. Notification Timing

Trade Flagger sends notifications when signals change state. This gives you time to prepare and make informed decisions rather than chasing price.

When Notifications Fire

Pre-Entry
New signal detected (heads-up)
Pre-EntryIn Entry Zone
Price near or in the entry zone
In Entry ZoneEntered
5m candle closed in zone — entry confirmed
EnteredPost-Entry Runup
Price moving toward T1
T1 / T2 / Between
Target progression updates (T1 hit, between targets, T2 hit)
In Target 2Completed
Targets / completion rule satisfied
Post-entryStopped
Invalidation after entry (loss)
AnyCancelled
TTL, regime flip, manual cancel, or stop before entry

In-app only

Notifications appear in the header bell and on the Notifications page. Per-symbol toggles live on your watchlist; use Settings → Notifications for the global on/off preference.

Pre-Entry & Zone

Heads-up for a new setup and when price is in or near the entry zone—review before entry is latched.

Entry Confirmed

Entry latched after a 5m close in zone. Review score, plan, and risk before acting.

Target Progression

Updates as price moves toward T1/T2 and between targets—track the trade after entry.

Stopped / Cancelled

Post-entry stop vs. pre-entry or rule-based cancel (TTL, regime, manual). Don't chase—wait for a fresh setup.

End-to-End Example: A Complete Signal Lifecycle

Scenario: BTCUSD Breakout

1
14:00 — Pre-Entry

Volatility squeeze on 5m; price consolidating near $42,000. New-signal notification—setup forming, not yet in zone.

2
14:35 — In Entry Zone

Price tests the entry band around $42,100. Notified that the zone is live; waiting for a 5m candle to close inside it.

3
14:40 — Entered

A 5m candle closes inside the entry zone. Score: 78. Entry latched—plan risk and execution.

4
15:05 — In Target 1

Price reaches the T1 band ($42,700). State shows first target in play.

5
15:18 — In Target 2

Price trades into T2 ($43,200). Completion rule can follow from here.

Signal Details at Entry

SymbolBTCUSD
StrategyVolatility Squeeze
DirectionLONG
Entry$42,100
Invalidation$41,800
Target 1$42,700
Target 2$43,200
Score
78

Outcome: T2 / completion conditions met. Signal moves to Completed in performance tracking. Total time from detection to completion: about 1h 20m.

Key Takeaways

Best Practices

  • Wait for Entered (5m close in zone) before treating the setup as a live position
  • Use Pre-Entry and In Entry Zone alerts to prepare
  • Focus on signals with scores 70+
  • Respect invalidation—never chase cancelled signals

Common Mistakes

  • Acting on Pre-Entry as if already entered
  • Ignoring invalidation and chasing price
  • Trading expired signals that no longer apply
  • Not enabling notifications and missing entry or target updates

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